Experts Predict Easy Victory for Ruling Party in Local Elections

GIP Expert Polls / Issue #5

The Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP) continues to survey engaged Georgian and international experts on issues of great importance. This October, GIP asked 30 experts and political observers about the imminent local self-government elections. The majority of surveyed pundits predict Georgian Dream winning by a big margin.

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Experts Critical of GD’s Constitutional Amendments

The Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP) asked 25 Georgian and international engaged observers and experts about the main issues related to Georgia’s constitutional amendments. The poll covered a wide array of questions regarding the role of the president, (more…)

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Experts Assess the First 100 Days of the Georgian Dream Government

This poll was prepared for the report “The First 100 Days of the Georgian Dream Government: A Reality Check.” The Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP) surveyed 30 local and international experts about the issues discussed in the report. Respondents were selected based on their active involvement (more…)

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Experts Identify Georgia’s Biggest Challenges Going Forward

The Georgian Institute of Politics asked up to 30 Georgian and international engaged observers and experts about the prospects for Georgia’s future following the October parliamentary elections. The majority of those surveyed see the new government as unsuited to cope with the country’s pressing economic and social challenges. (more…)

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Popular Oligarchy: Why the Public Still Supports Georgian Dream

Bidzina Lebanidze*

Recent public surveys have confirmed a paradoxical trend in Georgian political life: despite pressing problems, political blunders, and a troubling socio-economic situation, the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party remains the most popular political force in Georgia. It has been almost five years now since GD first came to power, and its list of achievements remains quite short. (more…)

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Mr. Trump Goes to Tbilisi

A US Ally Deals with Uncertainty

Joseph Larsen
GIP Analyst

In two months, Donald Trump will be president of the United States. There are plenty of reasons to be concerned. (more…)

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Single Party Rule Returns to Georgia

Joseph Larsen and Bidzina Lebanidze
GIP Analysts

Single party rule is returning to Georgia. The ruling Georgian Dream party won 48 of 50 runoff elections for majoritarian electoral districts on October 30. (more…)

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Georgia’s Democratic Dilemma

Bidzina Lebanidze

Despite some problems, the international community positively assessed the first round of Georgia’s parliamentary elections as largely in accordance with democratic standards and representing a step forward towards consolidating democracy. (more…)

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Georgia’s New Parliament at a Glance

How were MPs of Georgia’s new parliament elected, who hold leadership positions and what is the general structure of our new Parliament?

To answer these questions and make the information easily accessible, Georgian Institute of Politics is presenting – New Parliament at a Glance. (more…)

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FAQ

  • What is this about? Expert Polls, an initiative by the Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP) collects views from 30-50 experts, and presents these views and opinions to the public in an accessible way. The initiative started on October 1, 2016.
  • Who is behind this? The Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP). Find out more about GIP and its activities on the website.
  • What is the advantage of expert polls? Taken together, the views of various experts in most cases will be better than the views of any single expert. For elections, collecting views gives us a good estimate of likely outcomes.
  • Why try to predict at all? Identifying the most likely scenarios (while being prepared for others) helps to focus the attention on where it matters. Good estimates can help people to plan, and be prepared.
  • Is any single view right? We believe that reasonable people often can have divergent views on an issue, and that everyone wins if they listen to each other. In line with that, expert views show a diversity of views.
  • Who are the experts? For our polls we try to recruit a range of opinions, from across the political spectrum, local and international. We reach out to these experts through a variety of means.
  • How many experts and engaged observers take part in your polls? We typically try to engage 30-50 experts in our polls. This gives us a good range of opinions. More participants typically do not add much diversity.
  • Can I join the experts? If you have a track record of thoughtful contributions, do get in touch and let us know about your work.
  • How do you deal with people trying to distort the results? We have a number of ways of cleaning the estimates, based on 10+ years of experience of working with polls.
  • Why not just use the results from surveys of citizens? Surveys are incredibly useful tools. For predicting election outcomes, however, they have several major limitations.
  • What is your role model? One of our role models is the website FiveThirtyEight by American pollster Nate Silver. His aggregation of polls has regularly yielded accurate results. We are adapting this model to the Georgian context.
  • Who funds this activity? This activity is currently funded by the National Endowment for Democracy, for when your project from October 1, 2016
  • What about questions not answered here? Get in touch and let us know. We’ll be happy to answer your questions.

Expert Polls

Polls of experts and informed observers, initiated by GIP, will forecast the prospects of political parties in the upcoming elections, providing comments on the ratings given to each party.