Observers praise Georgia’s fight against COVID-19, criticize Orthodox Church

Expert Polls #11, Georgian Institute of Politics, March 2020

The Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP) conducted its eleventh expert poll from March 23 to 25. Forty Georgian and international scholars and political observers answered questions about the recent COVID-19 pandemic and Georgia’s resilience against it. The responses positively assessed the measures taken by the Georgian government and healthcare system and identified the non-compliance of the Georgian Orthodox Church and some citizens with quarantine and state of emergency rules as the most serious challenges.

(more…)

...

Observers Warn Georgia’s Democracy is Deteriorating

Expert Polls #10, Georgian Institute of Politics, December 2019.

The Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP) conducted its tenth expert poll from December 6 to 20. Twenty-three Georgian and international scholars and political observers answered questions about democratization and recent political dynamics in Georgia. The responses confirmed the overall negative view on Georgia’s political climate. Experts also had some   surprising responses in their assessments of political institutions and actors.  (more…)

...

Government and opposition share blame for increasing trends of polarization and populism, experts say

Expert Polls # 9, Georgian Institute of Politics, April 2019.

The ninth expert poll conducted by the Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP) explored the increasing trends of populism and polarization in Georgia. The GIP asked 34 renowned Georgian and foreign experts and scholars about the degree of populism and polarization in Georgian political parties and media outlets.

(more…)...

Zurabishvili is in the lead but is unlikely to win the first round, according to experts

The candidate endorsed by the Georgian Dream (GD), Salome Zurabishvili, remains the strongest contender in the October 28 presidential election, but she will not win in the first round, according to the latest poll of engaged observers and experts. The expert survey, conducted by the Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP) in early October, is based on the opinions of 40 international and Georgian political observers and experts, whose input was collected through various channels. In sum, these estimates can be viewed as a “corridor of expectations” for the outcome of the upcoming presidential elections. (more…)

...

Mr. Trump Goes to Tbilisi

A US Ally Deals with Uncertainty

Joseph Larsen
GIP Analyst

In two months, Donald Trump will be president of the United States. There are plenty of reasons to be concerned. (more…)

...

Single Party Rule Returns to Georgia

Joseph Larsen and Bidzina Lebanidze
GIP Analysts

Single party rule is returning to Georgia. The ruling Georgian Dream party won 48 of 50 runoff elections for majoritarian electoral districts on October 30. (more…)

...

Georgia’s Democratic Dilemma

Bidzina Lebanidze

Despite some problems, the international community positively assessed the first round of Georgia’s parliamentary elections as largely in accordance with democratic standards and representing a step forward towards consolidating democracy. (more…)

...

Corridor of Expectations — Results Mostly Hold

Bidzina Lebanidze

The poll of experts conducted by the Georgian Institute of Politics by and large predicted the outcome of the 2016 parliamentary election. Moreover, it held up better than most published polls. The poll predicted with a high precision the vote shares of United National (more…)

...

FAQ

  • What is this about? Expert Polls, an initiative by the Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP) collects views from 30-50 experts, and presents these views and opinions to the public in an accessible way. The initiative started on October 1, 2016.
  • Who is behind this? The Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP). Find out more about GIP and its activities on the website.
  • What is the advantage of expert polls? Taken together, the views of various experts in most cases will be better than the views of any single expert. For elections, collecting views gives us a good estimate of likely outcomes.
  • Why try to predict at all? Identifying the most likely scenarios (while being prepared for others) helps to focus the attention on where it matters. Good estimates can help people to plan, and be prepared.
  • Is any single view right? We believe that reasonable people often can have divergent views on an issue, and that everyone wins if they listen to each other. In line with that, expert views show a diversity of views.
  • Who are the experts? For our polls we try to recruit a range of opinions, from across the political spectrum, local and international. We reach out to these experts through a variety of means.
  • How many experts and engaged observers take part in your polls? We typically try to engage 30-50 experts in our polls. This gives us a good range of opinions. More participants typically do not add much diversity.
  • Can I join the experts? If you have a track record of thoughtful contributions, do get in touch and let us know about your work.
  • How do you deal with people trying to distort the results? We have a number of ways of cleaning the estimates, based on 10+ years of experience of working with polls.
  • Why not just use the results from surveys of citizens? Surveys are incredibly useful tools. For predicting election outcomes, however, they have several major limitations.
  • What is your role model? One of our role models is the website FiveThirtyEight by American pollster Nate Silver. His aggregation of polls has regularly yielded accurate results. We are adapting this model to the Georgian context.
  • Who funds this activity? This activity is currently funded by the National Endowment for Democracy, for when your project from October 1, 2016
  • What about questions not answered here? Get in touch and let us know. We’ll be happy to answer your questions.

Expert Polls

Polls of experts and informed observers, initiated by GIP, will forecast the prospects of political parties in the upcoming elections, providing comments on the ratings given to each party.