Zurabishvili is in the lead but is unlikely to win the first round, according to experts

The candidate endorsed by the Georgian Dream (GD), Salome Zurabishvili, remains the strongest contender in the October 28 presidential election, but she will not win in the first round, according to the latest poll of engaged observers and experts. The expert survey, conducted by the Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP) in early October, is based on the opinions of 40 international and Georgian political observers and experts, whose input was collected through various channels. In sum, these estimates can be viewed as a “corridor of expectations” for the outcome of the upcoming presidential elections. (more…)

...

Do experts and public think differently? — Comparing expert and public opinions on important political issues

The seventh expert poll conducted by the Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP) explores the extent that the opinions of the expert community, both domestic and international, differ from the perceptions of the Georgian public. The survey collected responses from 28 renowned Georgian and foreign experts and scholars who are actively researching and studying Georgian domestic and foreign policy. In order to compare the expert respondents’ answers to the views of the general public, the questions in the survey were partly taken from the public surveys commissioned by the NDI and the IRI. (more…)

...

Pundits Weight on Georgia’s Europeanization Challenges

Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP) asked twenty Georgian and foreign experts and scholars about the important trends and prospects of Georgia’s European integration. According to the survey results, the pundits believe that close relations with the EU and democratization processes in Georgia are closely linked and that Georgia will find it hard to consolidate its democracy without the EU’s support. Experts also believe that the process of European integration has a solid basis in Georgia and is supported by both the political elite and the population. (more…)

...

Assessment of 2017 by Georgian and international experts

The Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP) conducted a survey to sum up 2017 as part of the “expert polls” project. The poll collected opinions and assessments about the ongoing political and economic processes in the country and its future prospects from 20 well-informed Georgian and international observers. Both Georgian and international experts expressed similar opinions, which served as a good reflection of the ambivalent results achieved by the Georgian government in terms of democratization, social, economic and foreign policies in 2017.

(more…)

...

Mr. Trump Goes to Tbilisi

A US Ally Deals with Uncertainty

Joseph Larsen
GIP Analyst

In two months, Donald Trump will be president of the United States. There are plenty of reasons to be concerned. (more…)

...

Single Party Rule Returns to Georgia

Joseph Larsen and Bidzina Lebanidze
GIP Analysts

Single party rule is returning to Georgia. The ruling Georgian Dream party won 48 of 50 runoff elections for majoritarian electoral districts on October 30. (more…)

...

Georgia’s Democratic Dilemma

Bidzina Lebanidze

Despite some problems, the international community positively assessed the first round of Georgia’s parliamentary elections as largely in accordance with democratic standards and representing a step forward towards consolidating democracy. (more…)

...

Corridor of Expectations — Results Mostly Hold

Bidzina Lebanidze

The poll of experts conducted by the Georgian Institute of Politics by and large predicted the outcome of the 2016 parliamentary election. Moreover, it held up better than most published polls. The poll predicted with a high precision the vote shares of United National (more…)

...

FAQ

  • What is this about? Expert Polls, an initiative by the Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP) collects views from 30-50 experts, and presents these views and opinions to the public in an accessible way. The initiative started on October 1, 2016.
  • Who is behind this? The Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP). Find out more about GIP and its activities on the website.
  • What is the advantage of expert polls? Taken together, the views of various experts in most cases will be better than the views of any single expert. For elections, collecting views gives us a good estimate of likely outcomes.
  • Why try to predict at all? Identifying the most likely scenarios (while being prepared for others) helps to focus the attention on where it matters. Good estimates can help people to plan, and be prepared.
  • Is any single view right? We believe that reasonable people often can have divergent views on an issue, and that everyone wins if they listen to each other. In line with that, expert views show a diversity of views.
  • Who are the experts? For our polls we try to recruit a range of opinions, from across the political spectrum, local and international. We reach out to these experts through a variety of means.
  • How many experts and engaged observers take part in your polls? We typically try to engage 30-50 experts in our polls. This gives us a good range of opinions. More participants typically do not add much diversity.
  • Can I join the experts? If you have a track record of thoughtful contributions, do get in touch and let us know about your work.
  • How do you deal with people trying to distort the results? We have a number of ways of cleaning the estimates, based on 10+ years of experience of working with polls.
  • Why not just use the results from surveys of citizens? Surveys are incredibly useful tools. For predicting election outcomes, however, they have several major limitations.
  • What is your role model? One of our role models is the website FiveThirtyEight by American pollster Nate Silver. His aggregation of polls has regularly yielded accurate results. We are adapting this model to the Georgian context.
  • Who funds this activity? This activity is currently funded by the National Endowment for Democracy, for when your project from October 1, 2016
  • What about questions not answered here? Get in touch and let us know. We’ll be happy to answer your questions.

Expert Polls

Polls of experts and informed observers, initiated by GIP, will forecast the prospects of political parties in the upcoming elections, providing comments on the ratings given to each party.