Blogs & Commentaries

The last president elected by people? A review of the 2018 presidential elections

Ketevan Goletiani*

On October 28, 2018 Georgia will elect a head of state by popular vote, most likely for the last time. After the president’s swearing-in ceremony, the new version of the Georgian Constitution, which calls for indirect president elections, will go into effect. Political uncertainty during the pre-election period, together with the president’s reduced powers, has diminished voter interest in this election and added to the number of undecided voters, despite the fact that the outcome of the elections may have a serious impact on the country’s internal political life, the democratization process and foreign affairs (more…)

...

GIP project: Expert polls provided highly accurate forecasts of local election outcomes

Last year, Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP) launched a new method of social surveys – expert polls. Similar polls are widely used in the West, and particularly in the United States. They provide a high level of accuracy in forecasting elections and varying political processes. GIP’s expert polls are based on methodology – developed by prominent American pollster and political researcher Nate Silver – that regularly yields highly accurate results of the US elections.

(more…)

...

Popular Oligarchy: Why the Public Still Supports Georgian Dream

Bidzina Lebanidze*

Recent public surveys have confirmed a paradoxical trend in Georgian political life: despite pressing problems, political blunders, and a troubling socio-economic situation, the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party remains the most popular political force in Georgia. It has been almost five years now since GD first came to power, and its list of achievements remains quite short. (more…)

...

Mr. Trump Goes to Tbilisi

A US Ally Deals with Uncertainty

Joseph Larsen
GIP Analyst

In two months, Donald Trump will be president of the United States. There are plenty of reasons to be concerned. (more…)

...

Single Party Rule Returns to Georgia

Joseph Larsen and Bidzina Lebanidze
GIP Analysts

Single party rule is returning to Georgia. The ruling Georgian Dream party won 48 of 50 runoff elections for majoritarian electoral districts on October 30. (more…)

...

Georgia’s Democratic Dilemma

Bidzina Lebanidze

Despite some problems, the international community positively assessed the first round of Georgia’s parliamentary elections as largely in accordance with democratic standards and representing a step forward towards consolidating democracy. (more…)

...

Corridor of Expectations — Results Mostly Hold

Bidzina Lebanidze

The poll of experts conducted by the Georgian Institute of Politics by and large predicted the outcome of the 2016 parliamentary election. Moreover, it held up better than most published polls. The poll predicted with a high precision the vote shares of United National (more…)

...