Given Georgia’s recent gradual alienation from its Western partners, the US presidential election will have a more significant impact on Tbilisi than it might seem at first glance. Georgian Dream, which is moving toward authoritarianism, sees cooperation with the Donald Trump administration as a safe scenario. However, the new US administration will have rather large consequences at national level for the Georgian state.
The results of the US elections will affect primarily further democratization in Georgia, which has been backsliding over past years under the Georgian Dream government.
Critical bipartisan bills are already in preparation in Congress – the “MEGOBARI” and the “Georgian People’s Act”. Depending on the leaders in the new administration, these debates about Georgia could have a corresponding impact in Tbilisi. Following Donald Trump’s victory, it is expected that the new administration will show less enthusiasm for projects to strengthen democracy in hybrid or semi-authoritarian allied states. The Georgian Dream government hopes that the Trump administration will be less critical of Georgia’s democratic regression, including being softer in terms of sanctioning high-ranking Georgian officials. The party hopes to have more space for maneuvering to ignore Congress’ criticism of any further democratic backsliding. If the Democrats had won in the US, the pressure on Georgia would have been much stronger. Most likely, the issue of sanctioning various high-ranking officials would also have become much more realistic.
The outcome of the elections will also significantly determine the fate of bilateral relations between Tbilisi and Washington.
Recently, relations between the two countries have been strained. Statements about a “reset” or “fundamental reconsideration” of relations are often heard from both sides, and meetings at high-levels are not taking place. Donald Trump is distinguished by his populist and conservative rhetoric, which sounds similar to that of Georgian Dream. Therefore, Tbilisi expects that his administration, when compared to the Biden administration, will have a more harmonious relationship with the Georgian government. However, since Trump seems to be less interested in Washington’s activation beyond US borders there seems unlikely to be any significant renewal of bilateral relations, on the other hand, if the Democrats had retained power and Kamala Harris had won the elections, it had been expected that the dynamics of the recent confrontation between Georgia and the US would have continued, creating prospects of an end, ultimately, with a fundamental change in the terms of the Strategic Charter. This could happen at Washington’s initiative.
However, a scenario familiar with Georgian Dream cannot be ruled out: the party itself may declare that it no longer needs the majority of projects envisaged by the Strategic Charter and proactively refuse to cooperate (as happened when the Georgian Dream declined macro-financial assistance from the EU and its withdrawal from The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) European group).
Finally, the results of the US elections will have a serious impact on Georgia’s defence and security environment and capabilities.
This year, the US has already postponed the annual “Noble Partner” exercises for an indefinite period, which, in turn, were linked to the Georgian Dream’s disinformation campaign about the US. A Kamala Harris victory would have meant retention of the US position as a leading state in global security projects, including Ukraine’s fight against Russia. However, interest in cooperation with Georgia in this area is now most likely to decrease further, which may be reflected in the reduction or cancellation of training and equipment programs, reductions in defence financial assistance, and the suspension of other important projects.
With Donald Trump as president, the nature of US global engagement will fundamentally change and will likely be reflected in the reduction of Washington’s role in deterring Russia. Accordingly, even if Donald Trump maintains harmonious relations with the Georgian Dream government, Tbilisi should not expect any serious benefits from Georgia’s security perspective. Regardless of which party formed the government in the US, Washington’s unwavering support for Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic integration, for various reasons, could be expected to weaken.
Thus, since the US election outcome largely determines the nature and intensity of Washington’s international engagement, so as it is Georgia’s largest strategic partner, this will also be reflected here. In turn, the US elections will be important for Georgia in terms of the direction given to any reset of the already damaged bilateral relationship with Georgian Dream (which favors one-party rule) and the new administration.
