How likely is a war over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2017?

In April 2016, the long-standing ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan broke down. Fighting broke out and up to 200 people were killed, many of them civilians. A consensus of observers called it the worst fighting since the 1994 ceasefire. Russia brokered a new ceasefire after four days of war, however, negotiations for a lasting settlement have stalemated since August 2016.

Renewed fighting broke out between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces at the Line of Contact on February 24-25, 2017. Five Azerbaijani soldiers were confirmed killed. A major resumption of hostilities such as what occurred in April 2016 would have implications for the entire region, including Georgia.

At the request of the Georgian Institute of Politics, a selection of experts from the United Kingdom, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Iran commented on the likelihood of renewed conflict and its implications for security in the South Caucasus.

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