Navigating Tensions: Geopolitical Implications of Russia’s Permanent Naval Base in Ochamchire

The full-scale war initiated by Russia in Ukraine has reshaped the international order, notably impacting security dynamics in the Black Sea region. Despite its initial attempts to maintain balanced relations with Russia, the war’s effects have spilled over into Georgia, introducing new security challenges, including Russia’s plans for a permanent naval base in Ochamchire. This move poses a significant threat not only to Georgia but to the security of the entire region. If realized, this move could turn the region into an additional battleground or a flexible strategic asset for Russia’s operations against Ukraine, potentially extending the conflict’s reach into Georgia.

At the request of the Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP), a selection of experts from different countries responded to the following questions:

1. What are the specific risks and potential consequences of Russia establishing a naval base in Ochamchire for Georgia and the wider Black Sea region?
2. How can establishing a naval base in Ochamchire impact conflict resolution efforts in Georgia and the wider region?
3. What actions can the Georgian government and key international actors (NATO, EU, and OSCE) take to address the security challenges posed by the potential naval base and mitigate its potential risks?

Expert Comments #25| December 2023