09-10-2024
In the parliamentary elections of October 26, 2024, Georgian society has to vote not only for the assembly and the government but also the fundamental foreign policy direction of the country. In recent years, the ruling Georgian Dream party has cast doubt on the Western foreign policy course and democratic development chosen by the Georgian people. During this period, freedom of speech, human rights, and a values-based pro-Western foreign policy have faced significant challenges, placing Georgia at risk of international isolation and domestic repression. Consequently, the 2024 parliamentary elections are widely seen as a referendum on the democratic and European future of Georgia (Zurabishvili 2024; Linderman 2024; Thornton 2024).
In this context, the importance of the pro-Western opposition is critically increasing, and naturally, questions arise about the overall landscape and the readiness of opposition electoral subjects to compete with the ruling party. This is especially relevant given that the October elections will be held under a new, fully proportional electoral system, and the Georgian Dream party, whose support is reportedly declining according to public opinion polls (Caucasus Barometer n.d), needs to secure a constitutional majority to firmly maintain power. Despite the perceived vulnerability of the ruling party, the pre-election period does not guarantee a unified victory for the opposition players.
Against this backdrop, it is interesting to review the strengths and weaknesses of the main actors of the fast-approaching elections, considering that 18 different party lists have been registered. Will Georgian voters support at the ballot box a return of the country to pro-Western and democratic tracks? This policy memorandum focuses on the parties and coalitions that, according to the latest polls by Edison Research (Formula News 2024), are expected to overcome the electoral threshold. They include Georgian Dream, Unity–National Movement (U–NM), For Georgia, Strong Georgia, and Coalition for Changes. Three of these subjects represent a united political center within the framework of pre-election mobilization, while the other two are participating independently. Each player is analyzed in three main areas: strengths, weaknesses, and the combination of both (factors that can simultaneously positively and negatively affect electoral success).
