The Georgian Dream government has abruptly derailed from EU integration recently, with the consequence of delays in Georgia’s progress toward EU membership. While other countries of the enlargement package are moving forward, Tbilisi was not only unable to move on to the next phase, but is also missing from the official EU agenda on enlargement. A second, no less harmful dimension of distancing from the EU is “a reduction of political contacts” and a “ severe deficit of positive contacts”, as noted by former Ambassador of Georgia to France Gocha Javakhishvili, who resigned from his diplomatic position in Paris due to the worsening political atmosphere.
By contrast, the ruling party stubbornly asserts that it is continuing on the EU integration path. In his annual address to the Parliament, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze assured the public that Georgia under Georgian Dream will become an EU member in 2030. The same is promised by the founder of the party, Bidzina Ivanishvili. Yet, in an unusually accelerated enlargement process, when the time to attain EU standards is running out, it is hard to imagine how the Georgian Dream government plans to fulfill its promise. While the party tries to convince the public that its failure in EU integration is the result of the EU’s character itself what alternative does Georgian Dream actually offer its voters?
Why does Georgian Dream need the idea of “Two Europes”?
Georgian Dream wants to retain power for an unprecedented fourth term through the 2024 Parliamentary elections, which, for the first time, will be held in a fully proportional system. But, according to various surveys, fewer people identify with the party, so the path of democratization and reform creates significant risks for maintaining power for fourth term. In contrast with its ambition, the party knows that the pro-European segment of voters is rather large (Figure 1). Thus, maintaining a pro-European façade is critical during the process of transformation towards autocracy, to ensure that the ruling party does not lose its pro-European voters too fast.
Figure 1: Cross-tabulation – support for EU Integration; which party is closest to your views?
Source: Caucasus Barometer
In a sense, the Georgian Dream government is trying to create “two Europes” in the minds of the Georgian public – with a “bad Europe” that is unjust and unacceptable, and a “good Europe”, more acceptable to Georgia. The image of the “good Europe” is represented by Victor Orban’s government in Hungary, which has become a headache for the democratic Europe. Orban’s vision of the EU serves as a “kinship model” which the ruling party offers to the public to counterbalance the “unjust” Europe.
Even within the EU, the battle between far-right populist and liberal democratic forces has become more prominent. Far-right parties are improving their standing in European elections. What is more, they will likely be able to create a new far-right faction led by Orban’s party in the European parliament, and starting from July 2024, Orban’s Hungary will take over the EU presidency for six months. All this creates fertile ground for Georgian Dream to foster the notion of a second, illiberal Europe to voters.
Georgian Dream (not) on EU track – dichotomy in party rhetoric
Georgian Dream’s shift toward populist conservatism was inaugurated by former Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili during the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC2022), held in Hungary in May, 2023. A peculiar feature of this platform was the manifestation of a kind of “Georgian paradox”: Georgia remains an EU-aspiring country, but Europe itself is undergoing erosion that is not acceptable to “dignified” countries, such as Georgia. To justify this paradox, the party needs strong propaganda domestically to represent itself not as a failed government in terms of EU integration, but as a dignified European power, striving to achieve national objectives obstructed by Brussels itself. This dichotomy is reflected in several main points of the party’s propaganda.
- Dignified Europe VS Undignified Europe
The most scathing rhetoric directed at the EU is related to its “immorality”, or “lack of values”. Georgian Dream-affiliated media outlets, such as Imedi, try to present the EU as an “undignified” union with the traditional values being undermined. And since democratic Europe criticizes Georgian Dream’s undemocratic laws, party elites try to demonstrate that Europe is fighting against Georgian identity, religion and values. For instance, according to Secretary General of the party Kakha Kaladze, “our current battle, related to the adoption of the law against “NGOs” and LGBT propaganda, is a decisive battle to protect Georgia’s sovereignty and national identity.” To quote the diplomat Gocha Javakhishvili, “ Europe is only represented in a negative light , as a nest of depravity”. This rhetoric is easily manipulated into negative opinion among conservative Georgian voters.
- Independent Europe VS Controlled Europe
The second dichotomy propounded by Georgian Dream about the EU is the assertion that EU institutions are controlled by a group of unknown powers, and to make this claim catchy, the party uses the term “Global War Party” which, according to several Georgian MPs, is a Masonic “fifth column” in deciding international affairs. To date, it is unknown who exactly the party is referring to with this term, but from time to time they do name names – everyone from domestics opposition and civil society, to Georgia’s international friends and partners.
The “victim” of this rhetoric was even said to be the Venice Commission which, according to one Georgian Dream MP, was “forced to write” a critical assessment of the anti-democratic laws of Georgia. The Prime Minister even stated that “the Venice Commission has given up on its professional dignity”, which serves to devalue the image of European institutions in the eyes of the Georgian public. Clearly, similar conspiratorial narratives create at least uncertainty and mistrust, and at most, irritation among Georgia’s Western partners.
- Just Europe VS Unjust Europe
One of the main themes harped on by Georgian Dream is unfairness on the part of Brussels, when it comes to the decision on Georgia to open the accession negotiation. The just-unjust dichotomy has two main prongs. First, the ruling party point at the EU’s alleged desire to open a second front on Georgian territory, which Tbilisi does not agree to, and so Brussels is “punishing” Georgia unjustly assessing Tbilisi’s progress toward integration. The second implies that while the EU states themselves have problems with democracy – dispersing protests and adopting laws similar to the law on “foreign influence” – they request the cessation of similar actions Georgia. They think “we are stupid” and try to deceive Georgians.
From Brussels to Budapest: why does Georgian Dream need “Two Europes”?
The more undemocratic and anti-European Georgian Dream’s strategy becomes, the harder it gets to associate the ruling party with successful European integration. Georgian Dream cannot give up its narrative on EU integration in the face of a strong pro-European Georgian public and claims that the country, currently lagging behind in Europeanization, will be ready for EU membership by 2030. To justify this paradox, the party chooses to focus on the narrative of an “alternative Europe”. This approach will eventually undermine the opportunity created for Georgia after 2020 in an accelerated enlargement process. The ruling party is trying to delegitimize the authority of the EU, its leaders, and institutions. By presenting an image of Europe as “dignified and just”, the Georgian Dream government presents an imaginary alternative to the actual pro-European segment of society.
